SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Coco Gauff falls to Aryna Sabalenka in Australian Open semifinal

Aryna Sabalenka left New York last September feeling like she gave away the US Open final as much as Coco Gauff won it. 

She didn’t make the same mistake in their rematch. 

Sabalenka,SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center the No. 2 seed, advanced to the Australian Open final on Thursday morning with a 7-6, 6-4 victory over the No. 4 seeded Gauff and will have a chance Saturday to defend the breakthrough Grand Slam title she won last year. 

Unlike in their US Open matchup, when Gauff’s ability to track down balls and keep points alive caused Sabalenka’s high-risk power game to unravel, the Belarusian was steady under pressure this time. 

Making 76 percent of her first serves and hitting 33 winners, Sabalenka had enough to overcome both her demons from past Grand Slam meltdowns and an opponent in Gauff who played at a high level throughout the match. 

Sabalenka, who hasn’t dropped a set in the entire tournament, will be heavily favored in the final to beat either unseeded Dayana Yastremska or No. 12 Zheng Qinwen. 

Despite jumping on Gauff early and dominating the flow of play for much of the first set, Sabalenka actually found herself on the brink of losing it once Gauff’s defense and sideline-to-sideline speed started to kick in.

A mess of errors by Sabalenka handed Gauff the break and a chance to serve for the set at 6-5. But at 30-15, Gauff tried to play too carefully on a forehand short in the court and dumped it into the net. From there, Sabalenka won nine of the next 11 points and ran away with the tiebreaker to grab the set.

The second set was closely contested, with each player holding serve until 4-4. But that’s when Gauff’s struggle to make first serves finally caught up to her as Sabalenka crushed a pair of returns to break and earn a chance to serve for the match. 

Despite a nervy double fault and Gauff saving the first match point with a beautiful forehand down the line, Sabalenka stayed calm and finished off the match quickly from there. 

If there is any disappointment for the 19-year old Gauff in her first Australian Open semifinal, it will be in making just 57 percent of her first serves and hitting eight double faults. 

Sabalenka will try to become the first woman to win back-to-back Australian Opens since Victoria Azarenka in 2012-13.